SAN MATEO COUNTY
REDWOOD CITY & SAN CARLOS
REAL ESTATE NEWSLETTER |
COASTING TOWARDS 2010
December 2009 Newsletter |
Once again we see the seasonal spread between the DOJ and San Mateo County average single family home prices. Towards the end of each year, average home prices tend to drop due to fewer luxury homes selling while the stock market does not suffer the same seasonal decline. I'm confident the two shall meet again in the near future, Average home prices will rise slightly, as they always do after the New Year, and the Stock Market may come down a bit after its stellar recovery.
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The sale Price for all San Mateo County Single-Family Homes vs. the Dow Jones Index monthly average |
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SAN MATEO COUNTY
INVENTORY , CLOSED SALES, NEW LISTINGS
& DAYS ON MARKET |
Average home prices were down by about $80K since last month, but again, a decrease is to be expected. The good news for the year has been the lower inventory levels than for the same time last year and we continue to be on track to close about the same amount of sales this year as in 2008. Although sales were low compared to previous years, we are finishing the years with sales in excess of 300 homes per month which was better than the last few months of 2007 or 2008.
If we can keep this pace up, assuming interest rates do not shoot up, we may actually see sales volumes increase slightly in 2009. Although we still need to overcome the amount of foreclosures happening in our region. The National Association of Realtors recently announced its foreclosures results for the third quarter of 2009. The South, Northwest and Midwest all saw a decrease in foreclosures between 12-14% compared to the same time the previous year. The West only experienced a 1.6% decrease.
Another local trend we are seeing in the area is a number of developers deciding not to sell properties they built with the original intent sell upon completion. The developers with stronger balance sheets are instead renting many of these properties, in the hopes the prices will increase in the next couple years.
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No. of |
Avg. Sale Price |
Avg |
|
Year |
Closed Sales |
DOM |
New Listings |
1998 |
5,746 |
$520,901 |
40 |
7,830 |
1999 |
6,434 |
$620,436 |
45 |
7,273 |
2000 |
5,659 |
$838,782 |
29 |
6,944 |
2001 |
4,740 |
$791,809 |
46 |
8,033 |
2002 |
5,951 |
$787,021 |
44 |
8,211 |
2003 |
6,454 |
$805,867 |
46 |
8,471 |
2004 |
6,564 |
$957,347 |
33 |
7,756 |
2005 |
5,877 |
$1,097,324 |
32 |
7,998 |
2006 |
5,006 |
$1,126,572 |
43 |
7,723 |
2007 |
4,172 |
$1,209,838 |
51 |
7,452 |
2008 |
3,876 |
$1,038,395 |
71 |
7,550 |
Nov-09 |
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$858,851 |
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Current Inventory |
Closed Sales |
New Listings |
Sales YTD |
Listings YTD |
This Past Month |
1,283 |
323 |
376 |
3,513 |
6,213 |
Decade Average |
1,168 |
408 |
418 |
4,807 |
7,381 |
% Diff |
10% |
-21% |
-10% |
-27% |
-16% |
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SAN MATEO COUNTY
Graph 1 plots monthly Inventories, Closed Sales and New Listings. This graph is an excellent visual for determining the strength of the real estate market. The graph plots how over the past three years Inventories have been rising as New Listings remained fairly stable and Closed Sales keep decreasing.
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Graph 1—Monthly Inventories, Sales and New Listings for Single-Family Homes in San Mateo County |
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SAN MATEO COUNTY
Graph 2 looks at the same type of data as Graph 1, but it compares it from a seasonable point of view. It compares the numbers for the identical month over the past decade. Again, the same trend is visible; New Listings are stable while Inventory is increasing and Closed Sales decrease.
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Graph 2—Inventories, Sales and New Listings for Single-Family Homes in San Mateo County for a given month |
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SAN MATEO COUNTY
Graph 3 is a cumulative look at Year-to-Date statistics for Closed Sales vs. New Listings. This graph illustrates how dismal the year to date performance is compared to the previous decade. Listings Year-to-Date remain high while Closed Sales are well below any of the previous years.
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Graph 3—Total Single-Family Homes Sold & New Listings Year to Date in San Mateo County |
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SAN CARLOS
INVENTORY, CLOSED SALES, NEW LISTINGS
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San Carlos continues to surprise me with 24 sales in November vs. 25 in October; this is a good showing as the year draws to an end. Average home prices dropped about $50K as expected given the time of year. Another big surprise was the drop in inventory. There were 70 active homes in October, but it dropped to 49 (30%) in November due to a combination of the strong sales and sellers taking their homes from the market during the holiday season. San Carlos’ November inventory is actually 10% below normal for this time of year when most other cities are 10-20% higher then normal.
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Average Monthly Stats for Single Family Homes in San Carlos |
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Current Inventory |
Closed Sales |
New Listings |
Sales YTD |
New Listing YTD |
This Past Month |
49 |
24 |
19 |
203 |
351 |
Decade Average |
55 |
27 |
24 |
329 |
469 |
% Diff |
-10% |
-9% |
-21% |
-38% |
-25% |
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Average Monthly price for Single Family Homes in San Carlos |
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Monthly Inventories, Sales and New Listings for Single-Family Homes in San Carlos |
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Month over Month comparison
of Inventories, Sales and New Listings in San Carlos |
Year to Date Closed Sales
and Listing in
San Carlos |
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REDWOOD CITY
INVENTORY, CLOSED SALES, NEW LISTINGS
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Average home prices seem to be holding steady at around the $700K level, well below the $1.1M highs, but at least the market seems to have found a bottom. Redwood City’s story continues to mimic the County’s. Inventories are lower this year, closed sales are on track to equal about last year’s volume while new listings continue to be lower then the past few years. All signs of stabilization.
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Average Monthly Stats for Single Family Homes in Redwood City |
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Current Inventory |
Closed Sales |
New Listings |
Sales YTD |
New Listing YTD |
This Past Month |
155 |
47 |
44 |
408 |
748 |
Decade Average |
132 |
49 |
55 |
591 |
920 |
% Diff |
18% |
-5% |
-20% |
-31% |
-19% |
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Average Monthly price for Single Family Homes in Redwood City |
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Monthly Inventories, Sales and New Listings for Single-Family Homes in
Redwood City |
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Month over Month comparison
of Inventories, Sales and New Listings in Redwood City |
Year to Date Closed Sales
and Listings in
Redwood City |
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